After 100 matches and more than a month of captivating football, the: FIFA World Cup 2026 has reached its defining stage with only four teams left. This is a historic semi-final line-up in more ways than one. For the first time since FIFA introduced its world rankings in 1992, the top four ranked teams in the world – France, Argentina, Spain and England – all advanced to the last four of the World Cup. It is also the first time since the 1990 edition that all four semi-finalists are former world champions, highlighting the quality and pedigree of the teams still in contention.There was much debate last month about who would emerge victorious in the first-ever 48-team FIFA World Cup, a tournament that has been expanded to include a record 104 matches and 32 knockout fixtures. There have been surprise packages, giant kills and emotional outings on the way, but entering the final weekend of the tournament, the contenders are exactly what the FIFA rankings suggest they should be.After six rounds of football – three rounds of group matches, followed by the Round of 32, Round of 16 and quarter-finals – the four highest-ranked teams in the world remain just two wins away from lifting the most coveted trophy in world football.The semi-final schedule promises two thrilling contests. Spain will face France in Arlington, Texas, on July 15, while defending champions Argentina will square off against England in Atlanta on July 16. The losing teams will compete in the third-place playoff in Miami on July 19, before the champions are crowned in the final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on July 20.
Who are the favorites? Betting markets offer a clue
With four football heavyweights remaining, one of the biggest questions fans have is simple. Who is most likely to lift the trophy?While predictions remain subjective, betting markets often provide a useful snapshot of public sentiment. Two of the biggest prediction platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, attracted huge interest throughout the tournament, with a combined betting volume of more than $5.3 billion in the various FIFA World Cup markets. About $4.2 billion was wagered on Polymarket and $1.1 billion on Kalshi on predictions ranging from the winner of the tournament and Golden Boot to the Golden Ball, Best Young Player, Golden Glove and Fair Play awards.Separate prediction markets have also been created for each semi-final, offering insights into how fans can expect the final four to unfold.According to Kalshi, France will enter the semi-final against Spain as favourites, with a 59% chance of reaching the final compared to Spain’s 41%. More than $9 million was reportedly wagered on that particular outcome.The second semi-final looked much closer. England have a narrow lead over defending champions Argentina, with the Three Lions given a 54% chance of progressing compared to Argentina’s 46%. About $2.8 million was wagered on that market alone.Polymarket shows a similar trend. The platform also favored the France vs. England final, with more money sold in the France-Spain semi-final ($7.6M) than Argentina vs. England ($1M).
France emerged as clear favorites for the title
When it comes to the outright winner, the betting markets heavily favor France.Across both prediction platforms, almost 39% of bets are backing Didier Deschamps’ side to win the World Cup, making Les Bleus clear favorites going into the final weekend.The fight behind them was very tight. England is the second favorite, attracting almost 22% of the predictions, just ahead of Spain, with an estimated 21%.
Perhaps the biggest surprise was looking at the Argentine market. Despite being the defending champions and boasting Lionel Messi, they are currently the least favorite of the four remaining teams, with around 18% of predictions backing them to successfully defend their title.A total of $4 billion was wagered on the Polymarket tournament winner category, while nearly $1.2 billion was wagered on Kalshi.Polymarket’s expected final combinations also reflect France’s status as favourites. The France vs England final is considered the most likely outcome, with an estimated 35% probability. A repeat of the 2022 final between France and Argentina is seen as the second most likely scenario at 28%, followed by Spain vs England (21%) and Spain vs Argentina (20%).
The race for the Golden Boot remains finely balanced
The race for the Golden Boot has become one of the most interesting subplots of the tournament.Heading into the semi-finals, Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi were tied at the top of the scoring charts with eight goals each, while Harry Kane remained in contention with six.Betting markets heavily favor Mbappe to finish as the tournament’s top scorer. More than $55 million was reportedly wagered on Polymarket’s Golden Boot market, with another $16 million on Kalshi.Mbappe commands 56% of predictions on Polymarket and 61% on Kalshi, while Messi trails with 34% and 31% respectively. Kane remains a distant third, receiving only 5% of predictions on Polymarket and 4% on Kalshi.With every top contender still alive in the tournament, the Golden Boot race is expected to go to the final.
The Golden Ball, Young Player and Golden Glove races are heating upThe race for the Golden Ball, awarded to the best player of the tournament, also attracted a lot of attention.Approximately $7 million was wagered on Polymarket and $3.3 million on Kalshi in this category. Mbappe (56% on Playmarket & 61% on Kalshi) leads the betting again, while Messi (34% & 31%) remains his closest challenger. England star Jude Bellingham (18% of both) is also firmly in contention after another outstanding campaign.For the Best Young Player award, Spain’s sensation Lamine Yamal emerged as the top favorite. The teenager enjoyed 42% support in Polymarket and 46% in Kalshi, ahead of France’s Desire Doue, while Spain defender Pau Cubarsi completed the leading trio.The Golden Glove race is equally competitive. France goalkeeper Mike Maignan leads the bet with about 37-38% support on both platforms, almost ahead of Spain’s Unai Simon.Even the Fair Play Award has generated a lot of interest among bettors. Norway, despite their elimination, remain overwhelming favorites to claim the honor, attracting 90% of the predictions on both betting platforms.